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Moody's Predicts Slowdown for Colleges
This year will be a relatively stable one for colleges and universities, says Moody's Investors Service, the bond-rating agency, but storm clouds are gathering for colleges with large amounts of debt, in highly competitive battles for students, or in areas of declining population.
After many recent years of large growth in tuition revenue and in enrollment, the tide may be about to turn, says the report, "2007 Higher Education Outlook," which was released last week.
Total enrollment in American higher education grew by 12.8 percent from 1999 to 2004, but is expected to rise by only about 1 percent this year, a rate of increase that is likely to remain about the same for the next several years, said Susan I. Fitzgerald, a senior vice president at Moody's and the chief author of the report.
Tuition increases, particularly at public universities, are expected to slow for a variety of reasons, including stagnant household incomes, increasing scrutiny by state and federal politicians and policy makers, and increasing competition for students.
To respond, colleges must further professionalize their management and more sharply define their strengths, or students will find other alternatives, said Ms. Fitzgerald.
"Private colleges need to have a realistic financial plan," she said. "There are some colleges that are spending far more than their peers in an attempt to join a higher tier of competition, and they are challenged right now financially."
Copies of the report are available by e-mail at higher.education@moodys.com
http://chronicle.com/cgi-bin/printable.cgi?article=http://chronicle.com/weekly/v53/i20/20a02701.htm
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